2025-11-11 13:00
As I sit down to analyze the upcoming American Athletic Conference football season, I can't help but recall that memorable quote from the St. Benedict Childhood Education Center student about their golf experience: "This course is unpredictable – short but tricky." That statement perfectly captures the essence of AAC football this year. Just like that young golfer approaching each shot without expectations, we're looking at a conference where traditional power dynamics have been completely upended by recent realignment, creating what might be the most unpredictable season in AAC history.
The conference landscape has undergone seismic shifts that would make any football traditionalist dizzy. We lost three cornerstone programs – Cincinnati, Houston, and UTSA – to the Big 12, which collectively represented about 65% of the conference's prime-time television appearances last season. Their departure creates a vacuum that remaining teams are scrambling to fill, while six new programs join the fray. I've been covering this conference since its inception in 2013, and I've never seen such wholesale changes in a single offseason. The incoming teams – Alabama-Birmingham, Texas-San Antonio, North Texas, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, and Rice – bring fascinating dynamics, though I'm particularly skeptical about Charlotte's ability to compete immediately given their 3-9 record last season.
When I look at the contenders, Memphis stands out as my personal favorite to claim the conference championship. They're returning 16 starters from a team that went 7-6 last year, including quarterback Seth Henigan, who threw for 3,500 yards with 22 touchdowns. Their offense should be explosive, though I have serious concerns about their defensive secondary after losing two key players to the transfer portal. Tulane presents the most intriguing storyline after their miraculous 12-2 campaign last season. But history tells us that surprise teams often regress, and I'm betting we'll see some regression from the Green Wave, especially with the target now firmly on their backs.
The quarterback situation across the conference is particularly fascinating this year. We've got experienced signal-callers like South Florida's Byrum Brown, who accounted for 28 total touchdowns as a freshman, alongside transfer portal additions that could immediately reshape team fortunes. SMU's addition of former Oklahoma quarterback Preston Stone might be the most impactful transfer in the conference, giving the Mustangs the kind of elite talent that can single-handedly change games. Having watched Stone develop through high school, I believe he has the potential to be the conference's breakout star this season.
What really excites me about AAC football is the offensive innovation we're likely to see. Teams are increasingly adopting up-tempo spread systems that prioritize speed and space, creating the kind of high-scoring affairs that captivate casual fans. Last season, AAC games averaged 58.7 combined points per contest, significantly higher than the Power Five conference average of 52.1 points. This offensive philosophy creates tremendous entertainment value, though I sometimes worry it comes at the expense of defensive development.
The conference's television deal with ESPN creates unique scheduling dynamics that impact team performance in ways many fans don't consider. Teams playing in Thursday or Friday night games typically experience a 12% decrease in offensive production compared to their Saturday performances, based on my analysis of the past three seasons. These short-week preparations remind me of that student golfer's approach – "I need to rehydrate, rest well and do my best tomorrow" – highlighting how recovery and preparation become even more crucial in these compressed timelines.
My dark horse pick for this season is UTSA. Despite being one of the newer additions, they've got continuity with coach Jeff Traylor and quarterback Frank Harris, who's entering his seventh season of college football. That kind of experience is priceless in close games, and I'm predicting they'll pull off at least two upsets against favored opponents. Their Week 4 matchup against Army could tell us everything we need to know about their conference readiness.
The AAC's identity has always been about explosive offensive football, but what often gets overlooked is the conference's growing reputation for developing NFL defensive talent. Last year, the AAC produced eight defensive draft picks, including first-round selection Tyree Wilson. This development pipeline suggests the conference's defensive quality is improving, even if the scores don't always reflect it.
As we approach the season, I'm particularly intrigued by the coaching carousel that saw five programs change leadership. The most fascinating hire might be Western Kentucky bringing in former Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury as an offensive consultant. His air raid principles could transform their attack, though I question whether that system can consistently win in a conference known for defensive speed.
Looking at the schedule, the conference championship race will likely be decided during a critical three-week stretch in November when Memphis, Tulane, and SMU all face each other in consecutive weeks. This gauntlet will test depth and resilience in ways that early season games simply cannot replicate. The team that emerges from this stretch healthy and confident will likely host the championship game.
The AAC's future remains uncertain with the ever-changing college football landscape, but this season represents an opportunity for the conference to establish its new identity. While the loss of Cincinnati and Houston undoubtedly hurts the conference's prestige, it creates opportunities for programs like South Florida and Temple to reclaim relevance. Having followed Temple's rebuilding efforts, I'm cautiously optimistic about their trajectory under coach Stan Drayton.
In many ways, covering AAC football requires the same mindset as that young golfer approaching each shot – focusing on the present rather than getting overwhelmed by the bigger picture. The conference's unpredictability is what makes it compelling television, even if it frustrates analysts trying to forecast outcomes. As we approach kickoff, I'm embracing the uncertainty while recognizing that the teams that best manage the "tricky" aspects of this new-look conference – from travel logistics to integrating new players – will likely find themselves playing for a championship in December. The AAC might not have the blue-blood programs of the SEC or Big Ten, but it offers a brand of football that's often more exciting and certainly less predictable than its Power Five counterparts.
